Position #257
Dec 23rd, 2009 by vct
White 4, Red 4 (match to 9 points)
Red to play 33
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Pip counts: White 165, Red 125
Position ID: bE5hgDHg2xMHAA Match ID: QYktAUAAIAAA
The 5-point is too important to not make with this move. It greatly increases Red’s winning and gammon chances and the risk is pretty low at the moment since White will have 4 checkers behind a 4-prime and an far-from-perfect home field.
So where should Red move the other two 3’s? My choice was to make the 10-point, keeping the checkers together and clearing the last point, but GnuBG disagrees - it seems the 3-point is much more important than blocking the White front anchor.
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R | 8/5(2) 6/3(2) | +0,529 | |||||||||||||||||||
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| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 841644635 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Different evaluations after 12 plies: | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | R | 13/10 8/5(2) 6/3 | +0,444 ( -0,085) | |||||||||||||||||||
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| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 841644635 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Different evaluations after 12 plies: | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | R | 13/10(2) 8/5(2) | +0,391 ( -0,138) | |||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 841644635 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Different evaluations after 12 plies: | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Hello again. Just my two cents in addition to the points you’ve already raised.
From White’s perspective the position doesn’t look like a viable backgame, and given the inflexibility of White’s outfield, and Red’s prime - I suspect the advanced anchor will go in many variations. Thus for me this is a proto-acepoint/blitzing position (i.e. priming the back anchor, smoothing the bear in process and preparing to blitz when the anchor goes).
While white has 4 checkers behind Red’s prime, and an open 5 point there isn’t much to lose by exposing a blot. Especially considering almost all hits will involve breaking anchor, and the resulting return shots (with a 3 point board, and 5 point broken prime) will be particularly strong.
The alternative play gives White more time (to make the 5 point), decreases the risk in breaking anchor, and increases the risk while bearing in.